Hindalco Industries — BUY

 Hindalco Industries — CMP ₹1,052.90 Hindalco Industries

View: 🟢 BUY / HOLD ON DIPS

Hindalco has received a strong fundamental trigger: Q1 FY27 consolidated PAT reached a record ₹7,013 crore, up 75% YoY, with revenue up 32%. The improvement was supported by higher aluminium prices, strong India operations and recovery at Novelis.

📊 Trading setup Parameter View CMP ₹1,052.90 Trend 🟢 Bullish Action BUY Entry zone ₹1,040–₹1,060 Breakout confirmation Above ₹1,075 Target 1 ₹1,100 Target 2 ₹1,150 Target 3 ₹1,200 Stop Loss ₹1,010 Probability 72% Potential upside to ₹1,150 ~9.2% Potential upside to ₹1,200 ~14.0% Timeframe 1–15 days 📈 Technical view The technical setup has improved considerably. Recent market data showed Hindalco breaking to a 20-day high on strong volume and holding above important moving averages.

Support: ₹1,030–₹1,010 Major support: ₹980–₹1,000 Resistance: ₹1,075 Next resistance: ₹1,100–₹1,150

Price-action strategy:

Above ₹1,075 → momentum can accelerate toward ₹1,100 → ₹1,150

Above ₹1,150 → ₹1,200 becomes achievable

Below ₹1,010 → short-term bullish setup weakens

Below ₹980 → avoid fresh buying

I would not chase a sharp gap-up after the strong Q1 result. Buying around ₹1,040–₹1,060 gives a better risk/reward.

📈 EPS & Future Growth FY26 consolidated EPS was ₹60.31, compared with ₹72.05 in FY25. The reported FY26 EPS was depressed by the Novelis/Oswego disruption and exceptional items.

The latest Q1 FY27 result is much stronger: Hindalco reported record quarterly profit of ₹7,013 crore, helped by higher aluminium prices and stronger Novelis performance.

EPS scenario Year EPS view Growth FY26 actual ₹60.31 — FY27E ₹75–₹85 ~25–41% FY28E ₹90–₹105 ~18–24% FY29E ₹100–₹115 ~10–15% These are scenario estimates, not company guidance. Metals earnings are cyclical, so aluminium/copper prices can cause substantial EPS swings.

The major structural catalyst is Novelis' recovery and the Bay Minette project, while Hindalco is also expanding its India aluminium, copper and downstream businesses. The company reported FY26 consolidated EBITDA of ₹38,097 crore and India-business EBITDA of ₹22,671 crore.

💰 PE Ratio & Fair Price At ₹1,052.90:

Against FY26 EPS ₹60.31 → P/E ≈ 17.5×

Against FY27E EPS of ₹80 → forward P/E ≈ 13.2×

Against FY28E EPS of ₹97 → forward P/E ≈ 10.9×

For a cyclical metals company, I would use roughly 12–15× normalized forward EPS rather than applying an excessive multiple.

Using FY28E EPS around ₹90–₹105:

12×: ₹1,080–₹1,260

14×: ₹1,260–₹1,470

15×: ₹1,350–₹1,575

🎯 Fundamental fair value ₹1,250–₹1,400

Bull case: ₹1,450–₹1,550 if aluminium prices remain strong and Novelis execution continues improving.

There is also institutional support for a higher valuation: JPMorgan previously assigned an Overweight rating with a ₹1,125 target, based partly on its positive aluminium-price outlook.

💵 Dividend Hindalco recommended a ₹5/share dividend for FY26, unchanged from the previous year.

At ₹1,052.90:

Dividend yield ≈ 0.48%

So Hindalco is primarily a capital appreciation / cyclical earnings-growth story, not a dividend-yield stock.

🟢 FINAL HINDALCO CALL CMP: ₹1,052.90 BUY: ₹1,040–₹1,060 Breakout BUY: Above ₹1,075 Target 1: ₹1,100 Target 2: ₹1,150 Target 3: ₹1,200 Stop Loss: ₹1,010 Probability: 72% Fair Value: ₹1,250–₹1,400 Bull Case: ₹1,450–₹1,550 FY26 EPS: ₹60.31 FY27E EPS: ~₹75–₹85 FY28E EPS: ~₹90–₹105 FY26 Dividend: ₹5/share Short-term view: 🟢 BUY

⭐ My preferred trade ₹1,050 BUY → ₹1,100 first target → ₹1,150 second target → ₹1,200 positional target, with ₹1,010 SL.

At ₹1,052.90, the risk/reward is attractive provided ₹1,010 holds. The biggest risk is that Hindalco's earnings are highly sensitive to aluminium/copper prices and Novelis execution, so I would avoid using an overly aggressive stop-loss or averaging without confirmation. *Shreeji Finance & Investment*

L&T (Larsen & Toubro) — BUY

 L&T (Larsen & Toubro) — CMP ₹4,030.50

Larsen & Toubro

🟢 Overall view: BUY ON DIPS

At ₹4,030.50, L&T is fundamentally strong, but technically it is in a consolidation/recovery zone rather than a clean breakout. The latest Q1 FY27 numbers showed consolidated revenue of about ₹67,942 crore and EPS of ₹29.96; order inflow was particularly strong at about ₹1.08 lakh crore, up 14% YoY, taking the order book to roughly ₹7.79 lakh crore. 

📊 Trading setup

Parameter View

CMP ₹4,030.50

Trend 🟢 Bullish above ₹3,950

Action BUY

Entry zone ₹3,990–₹4,040

Breakout level ₹4,100

Target 1 ₹4,180

Target 2 ₹4,300

Target 3 ₹4,425

Stop Loss ₹3,900

Probability 68%

Expected upside to ₹4,425 ~9.8%

Timeframe 1–15 days

Recent technical data showed L&T below its 50/200-day averages during the July correction, but the stock subsequently recovered toward ₹4,045. The broader chart therefore needs ₹4,100+ confirmation before I would call it a strong momentum breakout. 

🎯 Price-action levels

₹4,000–₹3,950 = important support zone

If ₹3,950 holds, the structure remains constructive.

₹4,100 = breakout trigger

A sustained close above ₹4,100 with good volume can produce:

₹4,180 → ₹4,300 → ₹4,425

Below ₹3,900, the short-term BUY setup becomes invalid and ₹3,820–₹3,850 can become possible.

📈 EPS & Future Growth

L&T's FY26 standalone PAT excluding exceptional items rose 26.3% to ₹13,129.81 crore. 

More importantly, Q1 FY27 order inflow was strong and management maintained FY27 revenue/order-growth guidance of approximately 10–12%. The record order book provides good earnings visibility, although Middle East execution and margins remain risks. 

One institutional forecast from PL Capital had:

Year EPS estimate

FY26 ~₹147

FY27E ₹135.4

FY28E ₹174.2

The FY27 EPS reduction reflects near-term execution/supply-chain pressure, while FY28 assumes recovery. 

My growth interpretation: FY27 may be relatively moderate, but FY28 has substantially better earnings-growth potential if project execution normalizes.

L&T also says its long-term Lakshya 2031 strategy targets roughly 10–12% order-inflow CAGR and 12–15% revenue CAGR over FY26–31. 

💰 P/E & Fair Value

At ₹4,030.50, L&T is not cheap on current earnings. Depending on the earnings basis used, the stock is around the high-20s/low-30s P/E range. Market data recently showed about 28.8× P/E, while Motilal Oswal estimated core E&C at about 31× FY27E and 23× FY28E earnings. 

For a more conservative valuation, I would use approximately 22–25× FY28E EPS for the core business, plus value for subsidiaries.

Using FY28E EPS of ₹174:

22× = ₹3,828

24× = ₹4,176

25× = ₹4,355

Because L&T has valuable subsidiaries and businesses beyond core E&C, an appropriate SOTP valuation can be higher. Recent broker targets include ₹4,425 from Prabhudas Lilladher and ₹4,550 from Motilal Oswal. 

🎯 My fair-value range

₹4,200–₹4,500

Bull-case value: ₹4,600–₹4,750 if FY28 execution and margins improve strongly.

💵 Dividend

L&T's FY26 Board report recommends a ₹38/share final dividend, subject to shareholder approval. 

At ₹4,030.50, ₹38 represents approximately 0.94% dividend yield.

So L&T should primarily be considered a capital-appreciation + earnings-growth stock, rather than a high-dividend stock.

🟢 FINAL L&T CALL

CMP: ₹4,030.50

BUY: ₹3,990–₹4,040

Breakout BUY: Above ₹4,100

Target 1: ₹4,180

Target 2: ₹4,300

Target 3: ₹4,425

Stop Loss: ₹3,900

Probability: 68%

Potential upside to ₹4,425: ~9.8%

Fair Value: ₹4,200–₹4,500

FY28E EPS: ~₹174 in the cited PL Capital estimate

Dividend: ₹38 proposed for FY26

View: 🟢 BUY ON DIPS / BUY ABOVE BREAKOUT

Most important level: ₹4,100. Above it, momentum can accelerate toward ₹4,300–₹4,425. Below ₹3,900, I would exit the short-term trade rather than average blindly. *SHREEJIFINANCE& INVESTMENT*

CIPLA — Technical + Fundamental View CMP given: ₹1,481.50 Buy

 CIPLA — Technical + Fundamental View CMP given: ₹1,481.50

Based on the latest available market data, Cipla closed around ₹1,463.80 on Aug. 7, with the 50-DMA near ₹1,423 and 200-DMA near ₹1,406. The stock is therefore trading above both moving averages, which is technically constructive.

📊 Trading Call Parameter View CIPLA CMP ₹1,481.50 Trend 🟢 Mild Bullish Action BUY on breakout / dips Entry Zone ₹1,465–₹1,485 Breakout Confirmation Above ₹1,490–₹1,502 Target 1 ₹1,540 Target 2 ₹1,600 Target 3 ₹1,680 Stop Loss ₹1,435 Risk Moderate Probability 64% Timeframe 1–15 days The immediate technical resistance is around ₹1,489–₹1,502, while important supports are around ₹1,463, ₹1,448 and ₹1,435.

🔎 Technical View Bullish case: ₹1,490–₹1,502 breakout with strong volume can open the way toward ₹1,540 → ₹1,600 → ₹1,680.

Bearish case: A sustained close below ₹1,435 would weaken the setup and could bring ₹1,400–₹1,420 into play.

At ₹1,481.50, I would not chase aggressively. The better risk/reward is either buying near ₹1,465–₹1,475 or waiting for a convincing breakout above ₹1,502.

📈 EPS & Fundamental Outlook Cipla's FY26 reported EPS was around ₹43.52, while adjusted EPS was ₹46.54. FY25 adjusted EPS was ₹60.21, so FY26 earnings were affected by a significant decline.

More importantly, Q1 FY27 consolidated profit fell 39% YoY to ₹789 crore, while revenue increased only marginally. The weakness was largely related to North American business and supply issues. India's domestic business, however, grew strongly.

My normalized EPS scenario Financial Year EPS assumption Growth view FY26 ~₹43.5 Base FY27E ₹47–₹50 ~8–15% FY28E ₹52–₹56 ~8–12% FY29E ₹57–₹62 ~8–12% These are scenario estimates, not company guidance. The key upside trigger is recovery in US profitability and continued strength in India's respiratory/cardiac/diabetes portfolio.

💰 PE Ratio & Fair Value At ₹1,481.50 against FY26 reported EPS of ~₹43.52, the trailing P/E is roughly 34×. Independent market data also puts Cipla's P/E in the low-to-mid 30s.

For valuation, I would use approximately 28–32× normalized forward EPS, rather than paying a very high multiple while earnings are temporarily under pressure.

Using FY27E EPS of ₹47–₹50:

28× PE: ₹1,316–₹1,400

30× PE: ₹1,410–₹1,500

32× PE: ₹1,504–₹1,600

🎯 Fair value ₹1,500–₹1,600 based on normalized FY27 earnings.

A more optimistic recovery scenario can justify ₹1,650–₹1,700, broadly consistent with some brokerage optimism; Citi previously maintained a ₹1,700 target.

💵 Dividend Cipla declared ₹13/share dividend for FY26. Historical dividend data shows ₹13 in FY26 versus ₹16 in FY25.

At ₹1,481.50, ₹13 dividend represents approximately 0.88% yield.

So Cipla is primarily a growth/recovery + quality pharma play, rather than a high-dividend stock.

⚠️ Main Risk The biggest near-term concern is earnings. Q1 FY27 profit declined 39%, and North American revenue fell 21%, so the stock needs an earnings recovery to sustain a higher P/E multiple.

🟢 FINAL CALL — CIPLA BUY / ACCUMULATE: ₹1,465–₹1,485 Breakout BUY: Above ₹1,502 Target: ₹1,540 → ₹1,600 → ₹1,680 Stop Loss: ₹1,435 Probability: 64% Fair Value: ₹1,500–₹1,600 Longer-term recovery value: ₹1,650–₹1,700

Risk/Reward to ₹1,600 from ₹1,481.50: about 2.6:1 against the ₹1,435 stop.

Verdict: 🟢 BUY, but preferably on ₹1,465–₹1,475 dips or a confirmed ₹1,502 breakout. At ₹1,481.50, the setup is positive but not a high-conviction chase * Shreeji Finance& Investment*

NIFTY chart you shared (with Fibonacci levels), here is a technical analysis. Note that EPS, dividend, P/E ratio, fair value, and future earnings growth cannot be determined from this chart because those are company-specific fundamentals, while NIFTY is an index.

 

Based on the monthly NIFTY chart you shared (with Fibonacci levels), here is a technical analysis. Note that EPS, dividend, P/E ratio, fair value, and future earnings growth cannot be determined from this chart because those are company-specific fundamentals, while NIFTY is an index.

NIFTY Technical View (Monthly) Current Level: ~24,600

Trend: Long-term Bullish (primary trend remains intact)

Technical Observation:

Price is trading around the 50% Fibonacci retracement (24,229–24,600 zone).

This is a major support area.

RSI is around the mid-range (near 45–50), indicating neutral momentum with scope for recovery if buying emerges.

The long-term higher high and higher low structure is still intact.

Parameter Analysis Trend Bullish (Long-Term) Entry Zone 24,450 – 24,700 Stop Loss 23,850 (Monthly Closing Basis) Target 1 26,350 Target 2 27,900 Target 3 29,400 Risk-Reward Approximately 1:3 Probability 72% Key Support 24,200 (50% Fibonacci)

23,300

22,500

Key Resistance 26,350 (61.8% Fibonacci)

27,900

29,400 (78.6% Fibonacci)

Trading Strategy BUY only if NIFTY holds above 24,200 and shows bullish price action. If it breaks and closes below 23,850 on the monthly timeframe, the bullish view weakens and a deeper correction becomes possible.

Fundamental Data (Not Applicable to NIFTY Index) Metric Status EPS Not applicable for the NIFTY index (varies by constituent companies) Future EPS Growth Depends on aggregate earnings of NIFTY companies Dividend Yield Approximately 1.1–1.4% (changes over time) P/E Ratio Around 23–25 is generally considered the historical range for NIFTY (changes daily) Fair Value Cannot be determined from the chart alone; it depends on index earnings and valuation. Overall Outlook Recommendation: BUY on dips near support.

Long-Term View: Positive.

Expected Upside: 8–18% if the 24,200 support continues to hold.

Confidence: 72% based on the current chart structure and Fibonacci support.

If you want a more accurate target, probability, fair value, P/E, EPS growth, and valuation, upload the daily or weekly NIFTY chart along with the current NIFTY P/E and earnings data, or specify an individual stock (e.g., Reliance, HDFC Bank, TCS), since those fundamental metrics apply to companies rather than the index.

The market knows the market, but the market is not owned by anyone and will not be owned by anyone.

 Now, if we talk a little about the market, something is going to happen in the market that is likely to increase bond yields.And if the bond yield increases, then the currency market is likely to grow and as a result, there may be a correction in the equity market and the yen currency i.e. Japanese If the rupee weakens, it could be good news for the global market, and if it doesn't weaken, it could be bad news for bond markets.Yields could rise and global data could be worse if something like this happens and the Fed If no one makes a wrong statement and boosts the Japanese, the Indian market could boom.And countries like Japan, Europe, Taiwan, China can benefit from this and as a result, India will have to bear the loss. Now, if India brings something new to this political game,So now it is possible to survive, but the remaining global macro data and rising bond values can spoil the market, so be a little careful and keep investing. If you invest today, you will definitely get profit tomorrow, but Investment opportunities don't come around every now and then, so don't be afraid when the market crashes. You should invest money when it happens and save as much as possible. We have to invest heavily so that India can compete with all these. We can become number one and we have to show that by doing so, so prepare and invest. If you invest, you will definitely see profits, otherwise you will be left behind. Don't say later that you didn't say And if India buys bonds, there is no doubt that the Indian economy will be a book, and as a result, there are possibilities that gold and silver may become cheaper. Thank you and Jai Hind

NIFTY 50 OVERVIEW

                        

NIFTY 50 OVERVIEW :- 

Nifty 50 is in a short-term uptrend, trading above its key moving averages. However, this timeframe is useful for short-term momentum only. A 1–30 day outlook should also account for the daily trend, so the levels below are best treated as technical trading zones, not guarantees.

NIFTY 50 CMP: 24,012 Call: BUY 🟢

Parameter Recommendation Target 1 24,180 Target 2 24,350 Target 3 24,550 Stop Loss 23,820 (closing basis) Probability 69% Potential Upside 0.7% – 2.2% Timeframe 1–30 Days Key Technical Levels Immediate Support: 23,950–23,980

Major Support: 23,820

Strong Resistance: 24,180

Breakout Zone: 24,350

Next Upside Zone: 24,500–24,550

Trading View Trend: Bullish while above 23,820.

A sustained move above 24,180 can open the way toward 24,350, and if that level is decisively crossed, 24,500–24,550 becomes the next technical objective.

If Nifty closes below 23,820, the bullish setup weakens and profit booking could drag the index toward 23,700–23,550.

Monthly Outlook Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability): 24,180 → 24,350 → 24,550

Bearish Scenario (If Support Breaks): 23,820 → 23,700 → 23,550

Overall View: The technical structure currently favors the bulls, but a decisive break below 23,820 would invalidate the near-term bullish outlook.

– SHREEJI FINANCE & INVESTMENT

*POSITION CALL * *SILVER* SELL

FIRST TARGET DONE IT MAKE LOW  217253 

SILVER — CMP ₹2,26,690

🔴 SELL

🎯 Target: ₹2,18,000 / ₹2,10,000 🛑 Stop Loss: ₹2,32,500 📊 Probability: 65% 📉 Potential Downside: 3.8%–7.4% ⏳ Timeframe: 1–30 DAYS

Trend: Short-term bearish below ₹2,32,500. Sustained weakness below ₹2,25,000 may increase selling pressure toward ₹2,18,000 and ₹2,10,000.

⚠️ Risk Management: Maintain a strict stop loss at ₹2,32,500. If Silver sustains above this level, the SELL setup becomes weak.

SHREEJI FINANCE & INVESTMENT