Crude Oil Futures (MCX) OVERVIEW

 

Technical Analysis of Crude Oil Futures (MCX) Chart

Based on the chart, here is the technical breakdown:

1. Support & Resistance Levels:

• Support Levels:
  • 5,875 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement) – Strong support zone.
  • 5,838 – Another key support level.
• Resistance Levels:
  • 6,449 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) – Initial resistance.
  • 6,852 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement) – Medium resistance.
  • 7,255 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) – Strong resistance.
  • 7,286 – 7,857 – Strong supply zone (previous highs).

2. Target Levels:

• If price sustains above 6,449, then the next potential targets are 6,852, 7,255, and 7,286.
• A breakout above 7,286 can take crude oil futures to 7,857 or even higher.

3. Stop Loss:

• If the price falls below 6,300, the next possible stop loss would be 5,875 or 5,838.
• A break below 5,838 can lead to further downside.

4. Technical Indicators:

• Fibonacci Retracement: Indicates key support and resistance zones.
• Trendline Breakout: The chart shows a breakout from a downward trend.
• RSI Indicator (Bottom Panel): Recently overbought, now cooling off – suggesting possible consolidation before another move.

5. Summary & Trading Strategy:

• Bullish Scenario: If crude oil futures sustain above 6,449, expect an upward move towards 6,852 – 7,286.
• Bearish Scenario: If it breaks below 6,300, expect a decline towards 5,875 – 5,838.
• Neutral Bias: If price consolidates in the green zone, it may remain range-bound between 6,300 – 6,450 before making a decisive move.

Crude Oil Futures (MCX) – Short-Term, Medium-Term, and Long-Term Outlook

1. Short-Term View (Few Days to 2 Weeks)

• Bias: Neutral to Slightly Bearish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 6,300 – 6,000
  • Resistance: 6,450 – 6,850
• Analysis:
  • Price recently rejected resistance near 6,850 (0.5 Fibonacci level).
  • RSI is cooling off after an overbought condition, indicating possible consolidation or a pullback.
  • If price sustains below 6,300, expect a drop towards 6,000 – 5,875.
  • For upside momentum, it needs to reclaim 6,450 – 6,500 convincingly.

🔹 Trading Strategy:

• A short position is favorable below 6,300 with targets at 6,000 – 5,875.
• A long position is favorable if price holds 6,300 – 6,450 and reclaims 6,500, targeting 6,850 – 7,000.

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2. Medium-Term View (Few Weeks to 3 Months)

• Bias: Neutral to Bullish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 5,875 – 6,000
  • Resistance: 6,850 – 7,286
• Analysis:
  • Price has broken out of the downtrend but faces key resistances at 6,850 – 7,286.
  • Fibonacci retracement levels suggest a strong supply zone near 7,286.
  • A successful retest and hold above 6,449 – 6,500 would confirm medium-term bullish momentum.

🔹 Trading Strategy:

• If crude sustains above 6,500, buying on dips is preferred, targeting 6,850 – 7,286.
• A break below 6,000 could trigger a larger correction towards 5,875.

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3. Long-Term View (6 Months to 1 Year+)

• Bias: Bullish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 5,875 – 6,000
  • Resistance: 7,286 – 7,857
• Analysis:
  • The overall trend is transitioning from bearish to bullish with a breakout attempt.
  • A sustained move above 7,286 will signal a long-term uptrend towards 7,857 – 8,000.
  • However, failure to break 7,286 could lead to range-bound movement between 5,875 – 7,286.

🔹 Investment Strategy:

• Long-term investors should look for dips near 6,000 – 6,300 for accumulation.
• A breakout above 7,286 confirms bullish continuation towards 8,000.

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Final Summary:

Timeframe	Bias	Key Levels	Strategy
Short-Term (Days to 2 Weeks)	Neutral to Slightly Bearish	6,300 Support, 6,850 Resistance	Short below 6,300, Buy above 6,500
Medium-Term (Weeks to 3 Months)	Neutral to Bullish	6,000 Support, 7,286 Resistance	Buy above 6,500 for 7,286
Long-Term (6+ Months)	Bullish	5,875 Support, 7,857 Target	Buy on dips, Breakout above 7,286 for 8,000