MCX Ltd. (Multi Commodity Exchange) 4-Hour chart you provided, including targets, stop-loss, support–resistance, and pivot levels.
📌 1. TECHNICAL VIEW (4H CHART)
Trend
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The stock has been in a strong uptrend since March 2025.
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Price is currently trading near 9,825–9,900, very close to the Fibonacci 1.0 level (9,881).
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Momentum continues to be bullish, but overbought signals are visible.
📌 2. FIBONACCI ANALYSIS
Using the swing low (~4,655) to swing high (~9,881):
Important Fib Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 1.0 | 9,881 (Major resistance) |
| 0.786 | 8,763 (Strong support) |
| 0.618 | 7,885 (Ideal retracement support) |
| 0.5 | 7,268 |
| 0.382 | 6,652 |
| 0.0 | 4,655 |
➡️ Price is currently testing the top Fibonacci zone, so some profit booking is expected soon.
📌 3. RSI / MOMENTUM VIEW
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RSI is hovering near overbought zone (~70–80).
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Whenever RSI touched these levels earlier, price corrected shortly after.
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This suggests a short-term pullback is possible unless a breakout occurs.
📌 4. SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS
Major Resistance
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9,880 – 9,900 → Very strong resistance (Fibonacci top + previous double top)
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10,200 → Next resistance only if breakout happens
Major Support
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9,450 → Nearby support
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8,760 (Fib 0.786) → Strong support
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7,885 (Fib 0.618) → Long-term support
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7,270 → Mid-term support
📌 5. PIVOT LEVELS (4H Chart)
(Approximate from current market action)
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Pivot (P) = 9,720
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R1 = 9,900
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R2 = 10,050
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S1 = 9,550
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S2 = 9,350
📌 6. TRADING PLAN
⭐ Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Above 9,900
If candle closes above 9,900 with volume:
Target 1: 10,050
Target 2: 10,250
Stop-Loss: 9,720
➡️ Suitable for breakout traders.
⭐ Scenario 2: Rejection from 9,880 – 9,900 Zone
If price fails to break resistance:
Target 1: 9,550
Target 2: 9,000
Stop-Loss: 9,950
➡️ Suitable for short-term pullback traders.
⭐ Scenario 3: Medium-Term Buy on Pullback
If price comes to the 8,760 (0.786 Fib) zone:
Target 1: 9,500
Target 2: 9,900
Stop-Loss: 8,450
➡️ Best risk-reward zone for swing buyers.
📌 7. FUNDAMENTAL VIEW (MCX Ltd.)
✔ Positive Factors
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MCX benefits from high commodity trading volumes.
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Increased volatility in gold, silver, crude oil, natural gas boosts revenue.
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Recent update to new trading platform (TCS) has improved efficiency.
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Strong monopoly-type position in commodity exchanges.
✔ Risks / Concerns
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Any regulatory changes by SEBI can impact revenues.
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If commodity volatility reduces, volumes may decline temporarily.
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Platform issues or cyber-risks remain a long-term concern.
⭐ Overall Fundamental Bias: POSITIVE
📌 8. SHORT-TERM | MEDIUM-TERM | LONG-TERM VIEW
Short Term (1–2 Weeks)
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Overbought zone → possibility of pullback.
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Resistance at 9,880–9,900 is crucial.
Medium Term (1–3 Months)
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Buy on dips toward 8,760–9,000.
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Upside possible toward 10,200+.
Long Term (6–12 Months)
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Fundamentals strong; if volumes remain high,
MCX can move toward 11,000–12,000 levels.
⭐ FINAL SUMMARY
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Resistance: 9,880–9,900 (major)
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Support: 9,450 / 8,760 / 7,885
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Short-term trend: Bullish but overbought
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Medium/Long-term: Strong upside potential
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Targets & SL: Provided per scenario above
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