MCX SELL ON RISE

 

INTRADAY  FIRST TARGER DONE IT MAKE LOW  2277 CMP 

*MCX SELL* 2330-2310 BELOW TARGET 2280/2250 SL 2350 *POSITION CALL*  *SHREEJI FINANCE &INVESTMENT HATHIJAN CIRCAL AHMEDABAD*

MCX is fundamentally strong but technically in a near‑term overbought-to-corrective phase after a big rally; around CMP 2305, intraday bias is sell on rise with tight SL, while medium/long term remains bullish on dips. For investment, it is a growth story but very expensive, so position sizing and buy‑on‑corrections approach is important.

Current status & key context

• Pre‑split MCX last traded around ₹2,246–2,249 with day range 2,190–2,270 and 52‑week range about 882–2,278, showing a massive uptrend and trading near its highs.​

• Market cap is ~₹56–57k Cr; P/E ~80–81, ROE ~33% and P/B ~26–27, which is strong profitability but very rich valuation versus industry P/E (~58).​

• A 1:5 stock split has just taken effect from 2 Jan 2026, increasing liquidity but not changing fundamentals.​

• H1 FY26 PAT grew ~51% YoY, revenue ~44% YoY and EBITDA ~53% YoY, driven by high commodity volatility and volume, supporting a strong medium‑term earnings story.​

Intraday view around CMP 2305

Short‑term technicals show overbought/extended conditions with high volatility, so intraday trades favour sell on rise, not aggressive buying at highs.

• Recent price structure: strong up‑move to ~2,270 with intraday swings of ~80 points (2,190–2,270 range).​

• Oscillators and MA‑based setups show MCX in an overbought/extended zone on many intraday/short‑term timeframes (RSI near overbought for equity, high volatility ATR).​

For CMP ~2305 (post‑split equivalent levels scaled from recent range, approximate):

Because your quoted CMP 2305 is slightly above yesterday’s close (~2246–2249), treat 2300–2320 as near‑term resistance and 2250–2220 as immediate support band using proportional mapping from the 2190–2270 range.​

• Intraday preferred side:

  • Sell on rise near resistance bands with clear rejection; buy only on sharp dips near supports with confirmation.

Illustrative intraday setups (adjust to live ticks):

• Short trade idea:

  • Sell zone: 2310–2330 if price rejects this band on 5‑min/15‑min with wick and trades back below VWAP.

  • Targets: T1 = 2270–2280, T2 = 2240–2250.​

  • SL: 2350 (5‑min close above).

• Long scalp idea (only if support holds):

  • Buy zone: 2220–2250 if price bounces from this support with strong green candle and stays above VWAP.​

  • Targets: T1 = 2290–2300, T2 = 2330 if momentum strong.

  • SL: 2195–2200 (close below intraday low).

Keep quantity light; MCX is high‑beta and moves 3–4% intraday regularly.​

Short‑term view (1–4 weeks)

• Stock has delivered sharp gains, hitting record highs (around 2,278 on current basis, and over ₹10,000 on the pre‑split scale) with strong earnings momentum.​

• After such parabolic moves, stocks often consolidate or correct to digest gains, especially with P/E above 80.​

Short‑term stance:

• Bias: Positive but expect volatility; adopt buy on dips, not chase at peaks.

• Support levels:

  • Key near‑term support zone: 2,150–2,200 region, which has acted as intraday low area recently; below that, stronger support near 2,000–2,050 (old breakout and psychological zone).​

• Upside potential (1–4 weeks):

  • If 2,150–2,200 holds, retest and slight extension above recent high towards 2,350–2,400 is possible in a strong market and high‑volatility commodity environment.​

• Risk level: A few daily closes below 2,100–2,150 would indicate deeper correction towards ~2,000 first.​

Medium‑term view (3–9 months)

• Earnings: H1 FY26 revenue up 44%, PAT up 51%, EBITDA up 53% YoY – a powerful trend if commodity volatility remains high and new tech/platform initiatives sustain higher ADT.​

• Business quality: MCX is a near‑monopoly commodity derivatives exchange with high operating leverage, which means earnings can compound strongly when volumes grow.​

Medium‑term stance:

• View: Bullish, but valuation risk is high; treat corrections as opportunities instead of buying euphoric spikes.​

• Accumulation zones:

  • Good medium‑term add band: 1,900–2,100 range on broader market or stock corrections, assuming no negative regulatory or tech shock.​

• Medium‑term target band (3–9 months):

  • Base case: 2,500–2,700 if earnings continue 20–25%+ growth and market stays supportive.

  • Stretch case: 2,800–3,000 if commodity volume/volatility remain strong and valuation rerates further.​

• Medium‑term SL: Weekly close below ~1,850–1,900 would signal a more serious breakdown.​

Long‑term view (1–3 years) & technical picture

• Fundamentals: Long‑term ROE ~30%+, asset‑light exchange model, and secular growth in financialisation/derivatives usage position MCX well for multi‑year compounding, though earnings are cyclical with commodity volatility and regulatory risks.​

• Valuation: At P/E 80+ and P/B >25, most of the known good news is in the price; any earnings disappointment or regulatory hit can trigger sharp de‑rating.​

• Technical structure:

  • Long‑term chart shows massive breakout from sub‑1,000 levels to over 2,200 with new all‑time highs and strong volumes, which is bullish, but after such vertical moves, 20–30% corrections are normal even in long‑term uptrends.​

Long‑term stance (1–3 years):

• View: Good structural story but enter gradually and only on meaningful dips; avoid outsized allocation at current valuations.​

• Ideal long‑term buy approach:

  • SIP/style buying into deep corrections towards 1,700–2,000 if offered by market volatility.​

• Long‑term risk trigger:

  • Sustained weekly/monthly close below ~1,700 or major negative regulatory/tech news would require reassessing the thesis.​

For your intraday trade at CMP 2305, favour a sell‑on‑rise plan near 2310–2330 with SL above 2350 and targets 2280 then 2250, adjusting to live price action and your risk per trade.