TD Power Systems (TDPOWERSYS BUY

TD Power Systems (TDPOWERSYS) is structurally bullish with strong fundamentals and order book; for intraday, focus on buy-on-dips trades rather than shorts, with tight SL because valuation is rich and stock is volatile. Trend is positive short, medium and long term as long as it holds key supports on daily/weekly chart.

Current status & fundamentals

• CMP is around ₹688–700 with recent intraday range roughly ₹685–703 and 52‑week range about ₹293–850, showing a strong multi‑month uptrend despite a correction from the top.​

• Market cap is ~₹10,700 Cr; trailing P/E is around 51–52, P/B ~12–13, ROCE ~27–30% and ROE ~25–30%, indicating expensive but high‑quality growth.​

• Recent reports highlight robust Q2 performance, strong export‑led order inflows, record backlog and upgraded earnings/revenue guidance into FY26–27, which supports a positive fundamental view.​

Intraday view: side, levels, targets, SL

Recent intraday behaviour is sideways to slightly weak vs 50‑DMA (around 734), but price is still comfortably above 200‑DMA (~558), so bias is buy on dips, not aggressive short selling.​

• Recent day stats: Open ~₹694, high ₹702–703, low ₹685–686, VWAP ~₹693, suggesting a 685–705 intraday band.​

• 50‑DMA: ~₹734; 200‑DMA: ~₹558, so dips towards high‑600s are pullbacks within a larger uptrend.​

Illustrative intraday plan (adjust to live LTP):

• Side: Prefer long scalps above 685–690; avoid fresh shorts unless market/stock breaks down below 680 with volume.​

• Long setup:

  • Buy zone: ₹688–692 near VWAP/previous day low if 5‑min candle shows reversal and stock trades above VWAP.​

  • Intraday targets:

    • T1: ₹702–705 (recent intraday high area)

    • T2: ₹715–720 if momentum/market is strong.​

  • SL: 5‑min close below ₹682–683 (keep risk ~₹8–10).

• Contra short scalp (only for experienced, if clear rejection):

  • Sell zone: ₹710–720 if price spikes there and fails to hold above with strong rejection candle.

  • Targets: T1: ₹695, T2: ₹685–688.​

  • SL: Above ₹725–730 on 5‑min close.

Use your own 5‑min/15‑min levels, price action, and VWAP; numbers above are reference from last close and may shift intraday.

Short‑term view (1–4 weeks)

• One‑year return is above 50%, reflecting strong momentum; recent correction from ₹850 to high‑600s looks like a pullback within a secular uptrend, not a breakdown.​

• Stock is currently below 50‑DMA (734) but above 200‑DMA (558), a typical consolidation zone after a big rally where price can move sideways before the next leg.​

Short‑term stance:

• Bias: Bullish as long as daily closes stay above ₹650–660.​

• Short‑term buy zone:

  • Add on dips near ₹660–680 with bullish daily candle and supportive market.

• Short‑term targets (1–4 weeks):

  • T1: ₹740–760 (back to/beyond 50‑DMA).

  • T2: ₹800–820 if broader market is strong and power/capital‑goods theme continues.​

• Swing SL: Daily close below ₹640–650.

Medium‑term view (3–9 months)

• Fundamentals: High ROCE/ROE, low leverage, strong export demand (generators, traction motors, data‑center and rail opportunities) and record order book with upgraded revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR guidance of ~26–28% till FY28.​

• Capacity expansion: New production facility partly commissioned and expected to reach optimal utilisation by around Jan 2026, supporting higher revenues.​

Medium‑term stance:

• View: Positive; good candidate for a trend‑following position, but valuation is rich so expect volatility.​

• Accumulation zone:

  • Staggered buying between ₹620–700 on corrections, with the heaviest buying closer to 620–650 if offered.​

• Medium‑term target band (3–9 months, assuming execution on guidance and normal markets):

  • Base case: ₹840–900 (around or just above earlier high).​

  • Extended case: ₹950–1,000 if earnings and sector sentiment surprise positively.

• Medium‑term SL: Weekly close below ₹600–610; that would indicate breakdown from current base.​

Long‑term view (1–3 years) & technicals

• Long‑term metrics: 10‑year sales growth, margin improvement and very strong capital efficiency (ROCE ~30%+) make this one of the higher‑quality midcap engineering names vs many peers.​

• Order visibility: Commentary indicates strong visibility into FY26–27 with exports and data‑center/rail demand, which supports multi‑year growth.​

• Technical structure:

  • Price has gone from sub‑300 to 800+ in a year, forming a strong uptrend; current move appears to be a consolidation after a parabolic leg, not a major top yet, as long as 550–600 zone holds on weekly charts.​

Long‑term stance (1–3 years):

• View: Attractive growth compounder but with high entry valuation; suitable for SIP‑style staggered buying on deep dips, not for chasing every rally.​

• Ideal add zones (for investors):

  • Strong support band: ₹550–620 on big market corrections.

• Long‑term profit‑booking zone:

  • ₹900–1,050+ depending on earnings progression and your valuation comfort.​

• Long‑term risk level: Sustained weekly/monthly close below ~₹550 would mean reassessing the entire thesis.​

If you share your exact intraday plan (buy/short, capital, preferred time frame), more precise entry, target and SL can be fine‑tuned around the live price action